2030Maintain defensive advantage
The purpose of these first five years is to establish a durable global defensive architecture that continues to improve over time.
Last updated: May 11, 2026 · Public updates are batched quarterly, with urgent corrections as needed.
Suggested philanthropic spend
$475M
Cumulative
$2.5B
Prevent
$40M
Detect
$45M
Defend
$390M
2030 Pillar Objectives
Prevent
- Sustain high-coverage, high-quality upstream safeguards and keep them current as technologies, markets, and threat actors evolve.
Detect
- Maintain and refine a global pathogen-agnostic early-warning architecture capable of functioning as a permanent layer of defense.
Defend
- Maintain stockpiles, manufacturing readiness, built-environment protections, rapid MCM capability, and coordination systems as permanent components of biodefense readiness.
Milestones
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PreventKnow Your Customer (KYC)
Sustain high KYC compliance across high-risk biological vendors
PreventAI-Bio Safeguards
Sustain AI-bio safeguards across frontier LLMs, biological foundation models, and autonomous-lab systems
PreventResearch Governance
Reach high-risk research oversight and bio-audit coverage targets
Reach misuse-detection and red-teaming coverage targets across high-risk services
DetectGlobal Early Warning
Sustain and refine the global pathogen-agnostic surveillance and response-trigger architecture
DetectDiagnostics & Testing
Maintain diagnostic readiness: authorized platforms, surge capacity, and exercised deployment
Maintain PPE stockpiles, surge manufacturing, and exercised delivery systems
Continue deployment of pathogen-resistant building measures and maintain public-building response playbooks
Cement distributed manufacturing, market incentives, and public-private partnerships for rapid MCM deployment
Institutionalize annual exercises, transparent progress reporting, and specific multinational response workflows
Cross-cutting metrics
- To designFramework for measuring whether defensive capacity is actually outpacing offensive proliferation
Tracked means metric defined and data flowing. To design means metric concept agreed, but instrumentation not yet built.
Measurement gaps to close
The plan should conclude with an outcomes and accountability annex that explains how annual metrics roll up into the overarching strategic claim of durable defensive advantage. Without that annex, the plan will have many strong activity and coverage indicators, but a weaker story about whether those indicators add up to materially lower catastrophic vulnerability.
Measurement gaps enter the quarterly measurement backlog. Each public update either converts the gap into a tracked metric, turns it into a future milestone or backlog item, or keeps it as a research agenda item with rationale.